With CinemaCon set to begin on Monday, Gower Street Analytics has revised its 2025 global box office forecast, increasing it by over $1 billion. Initially projected at $33 billion in December last year, the new estimate now stands at $34.1 billion.
This updated projection represents a 13% year-over-year increase from 2024 (+10% at current exchange rates) and a 0.5% rise from 2023 (+3% at today’s rates). However, the 2025 forecast remains 13% below the average of the three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.
The higher estimate is based on first-quarter actuals, particularly the unexpected massive success of the Chinese blockbuster Ne Zha 2. This weekend, the film surpassed the RMB 15 billion mark in China ($2.1 billion at current exchange rates) while also generating an estimated $50 million+ in international markets.
As a result, Gower has increased its 2025 China box office forecast by $1 billion to $7.6 billion. This revision would place China’s 2025 box office 30% ahead of 2024 and approximately 1% above 2023, though still 6% below the 2017-2019 average at today’s exchange rates.
Outside of China, the international box office projection has seen a slight increase of approximately $200 million, bringing it to $17 billion. Gower noted that, due to recovering exchange rates against the U.S. dollar, this figure could have been up by around $500 million.
Global Box Office ForecastHowever, slightly weaker-than-expected first-quarter results led to an estimated $300 million reduction for the year.
The updated $17 billion projection marks a 10% increase from 2024 (+5% at current exchange rates), a 1% decline from 2023 (+2% at today’s rates), and remains 14% below the 2017-2019 average at current exchange rates.
Meanwhile, the forecast for the domestic market has been slightly revised downward from $9.7 billion to $9.5 billion. Gower attributed the decrease to a lack of breakout hits in early 2025.
If this projection holds, a $9.5 billion North American box office would represent an 8% increase from 2024, a 5% increase from 2023, but still a 17% deficit compared to the 2017-2019 average.
While the year has started on a slower note, many major releases are still on the horizon. These updated projections arrive just ahead of CinemaCon, the annual studio-exhibition conference set to kick off tomorrow in Las Vegas, running through April 4.