Putin’s Decision to Replace Top Ukraine Commander Analyzed for Strategic Impact

Russia’s Defense Ministry made headlines again on Wednesday with another round of reshuffling among commanders overseeing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a move that comes despite mounting criticism of the campaign’s progress.

General Valery Gerasimov, long-time chief of the Russian General Staff, will now take on the role of all in all commander of the campaign, with Sergey Surovikin, the previous commander, transitioning to one of his three deputies.

Surovikin, who only assumed the command role in October, will continue to play a crucial role under Gerasimov’s leadership.

Russian television commentator Sergey Markov remarked on Telegram that such shifts are routine among top military figures, characterizing it as a normal part of hierarchical adjustments rather than punitive measures.

Gerasimov’s new position places him in direct oversight of the Ukraine campaign, a responsibility that could define his legacy given the critical stage of the conflict.

His involvement had been more peripheral since the initial planning stages of the invasion, with limited direct engagement reported within Ukraine itself.

Mark Galeotti from the Royal United Services Institute suggested that Gerasimov’s new role could be seen as a demotion or a high-stakes challenge, potentially indicating unrealistic expectations from President Putin.

Gerasimov now not only commands the military operations but also handles key diplomatic engagements, such as military de-confliction talks with the United States, illustrating his dual roles in the conflict.

The Defense Ministry justified the reshuffle by emphasizing the need for closer coordination among military branches to enhance operational effectiveness, a move reflected in Gerasimov’s new team of deputies, including Surovikin and others.

Analysts speculate that the restructuring aims to tighten control over military operations as Russia prepares to deploy its reserve forces mobilized last autumn, anticipating renewed hostilities in the coming months.

General Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian military commander, indicated to The Economist in December that Russian forces were preparing for potential offensives as early as February or March, highlighting the urgency behind Russia’s military adjustments.

The reshuffle also coincides with concerns over the growing influence of private military contractor Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, complicating the operational dynamics within the conflict.

Prigozhin has publicly lauded Surovikin’s handling of strategic maneuvers, contrasting sharply with criticism from figures like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov directed at other military officials.

Observers question whether the Ministry’s recent moves are intended to consolidate authority despite ongoing criticisms of operational missteps and strategic oversights.

President Putin’s involvement in approving Gerasimov’s appointment underscores the high stakes of the conflict, where success could bolster Putin’s leadership or failure could tarnish Gerasimov’s legacy.

Military analysts and commentators alike are skeptical of the reshuffle’s potential to alter the course of the conflict, suggesting deeper systemic challenges beyond personnel changes.

Gerasimov, aged 67 and appointed by Putin in 2012, gained international recognition for his strategic doctrines, particularly focusing on hybrid warfare tactics like those seen in Crimea in 2014.

While Gerasimov’s theories on hybrid warfare gained prominence, the current conflict demands practical leadership in a full-scale military operation, presenting new challenges for the seasoned general.