Is this the Year for the Buffalo Bills? Fate and Metrics Weigh in

I remember it vividly, as though it happened just yesterday. The Buffalo Bills took a lead in a playoff game with only 16 seconds remaining, and then, they lost it.

You might think I’m talking about last year’s devastating loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but I’m actually recalling the 1999 AFC Wild Card game against the Tennessee Titans.

That defeat kept the Bills out of the playoffs for another painful 18 years. In the last 30 years, the Bills stand alone as the only team to lose not one, but two playoff games after holding a lead with less than 25 seconds left on the clock.

Most other fan bases might have given up on their team after such crushing defeats.

Being a Bills fan isn’t about the easy road; it’s about enduring challenges. As former Head Coach Marv Levy famously said, “When it’s too tough for them, it’s just right for us.”

Last year’s loss to the Chiefs only fueled the desire among Bills fans like myself to witness a Super Bowl victory.

Heading into Week 17 this season, hopes were high. The Bills were tied for the best record in the AFC and held the tiebreaker over the Chiefs for a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Then, everything changed in a moment that transcended football, as even the toughest among us were visibly moved. Damar Hamlin’s collapse on national television was a shocking moment, reminiscent of the unexpected during the September 11 attacks.

For American viewers, it mirrored the sudden cardiac arrest of Denmark’s Christian Eriksen during Euro 2020. Yet, amid the tragedy of Hamlin’s near-death experience, the days that followed brought a remarkable uplift.

His miraculous survival and recovery, and the outpouring of support from Buffalo and beyond, embodied Levy’s ethos.

The NFL rightly canceled the Bills’ game against the Bengals following Hamlin’s injury, inadvertently giving the Chiefs a slight edge due to Buffalo playing one game less.

As a result, the Bills find themselves playing in the Wild Card round while the Chiefs enjoy a bye.

Despite this setback, my optimism as a Bills fan is higher than ever. It feels reminiscent of the hope Buffalo fans had during the 1990/91 season, despite my being too young to recall Scott Norwood’s missed field goal that ended that dream.

As I’ve said, many fan bases would have abandoned their team after such losses. Instead, Norwood was cheered at a rally, and the Bills went on to make four consecutive Super Bowls, albeit without a win.

Why do I remain optimistic after such disappointments?

Partly, it’s the blind faith of a fan. Partly, it’s the euphoria from beating the Patriots last week, highlighted by Nyheim Hines’ kickoff return touchdowns, a rarity since 2010.

It feels like destiny is finally smiling on us, symbolized by Hamlin’s jersey number, 3.

Of course, I’m not one to rely solely on fate. After all, I’m CNN’s resident “data reporter.”

So, let’s talk statistics.

This weekend, the Bills face the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round, heavily favored to win by double digits.

Beyond that, the road to the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl promises challenges.

By many metrics — ESPN’s FPI, FiveThirtyEight’s Elo, Football Outsiders DVOA — the Bills rank as the league’s best team this season. The last of these indexes places the Bills among only seven teams in the last 40 years to finish top five in offense, defense, and special teams.

To echo another famous Levy quote, there’s truly no place I’d rather be as a Bills fan than right here, right now.